The big picture
Central banks are rewriting their reaction functions rather than their rate levels. Ueda's shift in Japan and the National Bank of Georgia's 3% target for 2026-2028 both narrow what policymakers say they will respond to, leaving the pace of adjustment to Middle East developments, AI demand and FX rather than to the inflation print itself. The same reframing runs through the Bank of Russia's Instruction No. 7432-U, which moves the household-credit channel of transmission into the amended debt-burden ratio and away from the policy rate alone. Against that, the ECB's full allotment at a fixed rate leaves its tender rate capping rather than signalling the euro money market, and the Bundesbank's green tap shows the long end demanding more duration compensation than the five-year line. The Development Committee's warning that fragmentation is now the defining constraint ties these together: the shocks it names in energy, fertilizers and logistics are exactly the external deviations Georgia says it will ignore.
On the watchlist
- The BOJ's October 30 Outlook Report must confirm the hiking bias Ueda has now built into the short end of JGBs and the yen.
- The European Commission's decision on ESMA's draft standards will settle the perimeter of the EMIR clearing exemption for post-trade risk reduction.
- Bank of Korea's Monetary Stabilization Bond tender closes on terms carried only in the attached documents, not the issuance notice.
- The Bank of Russia's Instruction No. 7432-U enters into force in January of the year after adoption, resetting the macroprudential caps on household credit growth.
- Eswatini's treasury bill rate at 7.93% sits below the 7% discount rate set in September, a spread that decides whether domestic non-bank demand for government paper holds.