The big picture
China's slowdown and its policy answer are the same event: with property development investment down −20.6% and land receipts gone, the state moves the funding burden onto bond markets and central-bank liquidity backstops rather than onto bank balance sheets. The PBOC's redemption tool for non-bank funds and the eleven-ministry push for tech-innovation bond products are two halves of that shift — one builds the buyer base, the other promises to contain the run when it reverses. The BIS reaches the opposite conclusion from the same trend: sovereign curves are now held by leveraged buyers, and its proposed minimum haircuts and central clearing would raise the cost of duration exactly as Beijing asks its banks and funds to carry more of it. The RBI's deletion of its non-option derivative caps points the same way, moving duration limits from rulebooks into internal models on the eve of a large government bond reissue that includes a 2066 line.
On the watchlist
- October 23: the RBI's cut-off on the GS 2066 tranche of the large reissue sets the term premium dealers carry into settlement on October 26.
- October 26: settlement of the RBI reissue, where the GS 2031 line's notified amount meets an additional-subscription option capped at roughly a tenth per security.
- The ECB's 7-day main refinancing operation settles at a fixed 2.65%; the take-up at settlement shows how much short-end duration banks are funding.
- The next HMRC receipts bulletin, after the figureless release, carries the year-to-date receipts read that gilt investors lack ahead of the fiscal event.
- Pakistan's Q4 FY 2026 growth print of 2% against the revised full-year 3.65% confirms whether the quarterly path steepened as the National Accounts Committee now shows.