Lagarde refuses to look through an energy-driven shock, lifting ECB rates by a modest increment with headline inflation still well above target and core inflation also above it.

Central banks are being pushed apart by the same energy and supply shock: the ECB has stopped looking through it and raised rates, while the PBOC keeps policy moderately loose and narrows its rate corridor as record government issuance makes the state the marginal buyer of its own bonds. Japan's fiscal pledge — funding income-scaled benefits and a consumption tax cut on food and beverages without special deficit bonds — is the anchor that keeps its own supply arithmetic from colliding with the IMFC's warning on rising sovereign yields and refinancing needs. In India the plumbing points the other way: banks parked cash at the standing deposit facility at its policy rate while the overnight segment cleared above it, and the RBI now reverses into a seven-day variable rate repo, so the short end is being re-anchored by the central bank rather than by demand. Greece's second estimate leaves real growth positive but lifts nominal GDP much faster in cash terms, easing the debt-ratio arithmetic without a single consolidation measure — the kind of nominal windfall the IMFC's call for credible frameworks does not count.