Euro-area inflation rose to 3.8% in September, with energy the main driver, pricing out an ECB cut at the October meeting.

On the watchlist

• The ECB's October meeting: with HICP at 3.8% and the monthly rate at 0.6%, a cut is priced out and the short-dated Bund repricing has to be confirmed or reversed.
• 19 October 2026: the BCEAO simultaneous tender for Guinea-Bissau Treasury bills and bonds, published without amounts, tenors or coupons, prices against Côte d'Ivoire's regional auction in the same week.
• The RBI's weekly reserves release for the following week, after total reserves of $726.03bn and a year-on-year gain of $28.24bn, shows whether the absorption in the preceding week continues.
• From 2027 the Basel Committee's G-SIB indicators move to a reporting-year average and the disclosure threshold rises sharply, dropping banks near the boundary out of the population.
• December 2026: allocation and confirmation duties under ESMA's shortened settlement framework become binding, ahead of the October 2027 settlement switch.