The big picture
India is running two interventions at once: the special dollar window for Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum removes the largest corporate bidders from the spot market, while the OMO sale and the daily CRR floor pull rupee liquidity out of the banking system. The two operations point in opposite directions for the rupee — one suppresses depreciation pressure without touching reserves, the other tightens domestic money toward the repo rate — and the cost lands on the RBI balance sheet rather than on the currency. Russia shows the other end of the same trade-off: with the key rate held at 14%, the 10-year OFZ yield at 16.88% and the corporate–OFZ spread at 186bp reflect a term premium the central bank did not create and cannot lower by holding. Japan's cabinet has removed the immediate JGB supply threat by pledging no deficit-covering bonds for its food tax cut, but the two-year revenue hole is deferred to the budget process, not closed.
On the watchlist
- India's fortnightly reserve data due 16 October, after the special dollar window opens on 12 October, shows whether the RBI is drawing down reserves or only redirecting dollar demand.
- The RBI's outright OMO sale on 13 October clears against the ₹−203,127 crore net absorption of 4 October, testing whether duration withdrawal tightens money markets as much as the overnight drains did.
- Russia's September inflation print and the CBR's next rate decision test whether household expectations at 14.2%, up from 13.7%, force a change from the 14% key rate.
- HMRC's CBAM force of law notices must be finalised before the regime commences on 1 January 2027, or importers of covered goods build systems against rules that still lack legal force.