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Market briefing · 2026-10-10 Saturday · Preview

The RBI sells dollars directly to India's three state oil refiners and locks banks into 99% daily reserve maintenance, moving the oil import bill onto its own balance sheet.

The big picture

India is running two interventions at once: the special dollar window for Indian Oil, Hindustan Petroleum and Bharat Petroleum removes the largest corporate bidders from the spot market, while the OMO sale and the daily CRR floor pull rupee liquidity out of the banking system. The two operations point in opposite directions for the rupee — one suppresses depreciation pressure without touching reserves, the other tightens domestic money toward the repo rate — and the cost lands on the RBI balance sheet rather than on the currency. Russia shows the other end of the same trade-off: with the key rate held at 14%, the 10-year OFZ yield at 16.88% and the corporate–OFZ spread at 186bp reflect a term premium the central bank did not create and cannot lower by holding. Japan's cabinet has removed the immediate JGB supply threat by pledging no deficit-covering bonds for its food tax cut, but the two-year revenue hole is deferred to the budget process, not closed.

On the watchlist

  • India's fortnightly reserve data due 16 October, after the special dollar window opens on 12 October, shows whether the RBI is drawing down reserves or only redirecting dollar demand.
  • The RBI's outright OMO sale on 13 October clears against the ₹−203,127 crore net absorption of 4 October, testing whether duration withdrawal tightens money markets as much as the overnight drains did.
  • Russia's September inflation print and the CBR's next rate decision test whether household expectations at 14.2%, up from 13.7%, force a change from the 14% key rate.
  • HMRC's CBAM force of law notices must be finalised before the regime commences on 1 January 2027, or importers of covered goods build systems against rules that still lack legal force.

What moved

3 of 9 releases rated high today; the others lead their sections.

Decisions & policy

3 pieces · 2 more releases

RBI shields oil importers from dollar demand

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— RBI

Data

3 pieces · 17 more releases

Show all 17 items
Manufacturing output in August 12 percent higher, year on year — Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 2026-10-09
Fall in exports of goods in August — Statistics Denmark
Loading... — Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Angola)
Commodity transactions of Greece (provisional data), August 2026 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-10-08
2026-10-08 Non-Performing Loans of Domestic Banks at End-August 2026 — Financial Supervisory Commission (Taiwan)
Consumer Price Index, September 2026 — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
Money market funds — Autorité des marchés financiers (France)
Exchange rates of 09-10-2026 — Bank of the Republic of Burundi

Issuance & auctions

3 pieces · 14 more releases

Show all 14 items

Regulation & supervision

2 pieces · 28 more releases

Show all 28 items
Bring your sustainability claims in line with new European rules — The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets 2026-10-09
Jefferies LLC — SEC 2026-10-09
Management mandate — Autorité des marchés financiers (France)
VW AG: BaFin imposes fine — BaFin 2026-10-09
Extensions of Credit to Insiders — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-10-09
Sanctions Update – 9th October 2026 — Financial Supervision Commission (Isle of Man) 2026-10-09
OCC Assesses $350 Million Civil Money Penalty Against American Express — Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) 2026-10-08
2026-10-08 Securities and Futures Bureau Daily News (8 October 2026) — Financial Supervisory Commission (Taiwan)

Speeches & research

2 pieces · 21 more releases

Show all 21 items
SCB Digital Asset Supervision and Surveillance Report 2021-2026 — Securities Commission of The Bahamas 2026-10-09
SCB Risk Assessment Report: Digital Assets Sector — Securities Commission of The Bahamas 2026-10-09
SCB Risk Assessment Report: Securities Sector — Securities Commission of The Bahamas 2026-10-09
30th anniversary of the first consumer financial trust in Argentina — Comisión Nacional de Valores (Argentina)

The week ahead

Dates named in today’s releases that fall within the next seven days · no model involved.

In brief

110 releases

Show all 110 items
09 October — Bureau of National Statistics (Kazakhstan)
Statement of Revenue and Expenditure for September 2026 — Central Bank of Libya 2026-10-08
Report on fraud and fraud statistics, first half of 2026 — Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway
Building permits – Q2 2026 — ISTAT 2026-10-09
External Trade Statistics September 2026 — Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Timor-Leste 2026-10-09
Construction Production Indices - August 2026 — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-10-09
Monthly banking sector data – August 2026 — Polish Financial Supervision Authority 2026-10-09
Consumption Expenditure of Population of Indonesia March 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-10-05
Welfare Statistics 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-10-05
Second Conference on 'Applied Macroeconomics' — Banca d'Italia 2026-10-09
Press Release on the İstanbul Economic Forum (2026-44) — Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye 2026-10-09
Carlo Comporti appointed Chair of the European Securities and Markets Authority — European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA)
11 October 2027 will be T day for the capital market — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-10-09
UK trade development plan update: October 2026 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-10-09
Occupational Wage Survey — Economics and Statistics Office (Cayman Islands)
Data on the activity of insurance brokers as at 30.06.2026 — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-10-09
Peanut Prices — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
Ridgewood & Company — Securities and Futures Commission (Hong Kong)
Europ Assistance S.A. — BaFin 2026-10-09
New Cayman Islands Coins Set for Release — Cayman Islands Monetary Authority
The 2026 Occupational Wage Survey Commenced on October 8 — Economics and Statistics Office (Cayman Islands)
ESMA appoints Carlos San Basilio as the new member of its Management Board — European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA)
Deregistration of Designated Business – Gray Law Limited — Financial Supervision Commission (Isle of Man) 2026-10-09
Deregistration of Designated Business – Exact Tax (Bespoke) Limited — Financial Supervision Commission (Isle of Man) 2026-10-09
Debt collection statistics for the first half of 2026 — Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway
Orange Tropical Cyclone SIMON-26 off-shore from: 07 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026. — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-07
Red Tropical Cyclone SIMON-26 off-shore from: 07 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026. — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-07
Red Tropical Cyclone SIMON-26 in Mexico from: 07 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026 — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-07
Orange Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS-26 in United States from: 06 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026 — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-06
Orange M 7.7 Earthquake in Panama at: 09 Oct 2026 17:56:06. — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-09
Orange Tropical Cyclone ISAIAS-26 in United States from: 06 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026 . — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-06
Orange Tropical Cyclone SIMON-26 in Mexico from: 07 Oct 2026 to: 09 Oct 2026 . — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-10-07
Portal Features — Information & eGovernment Authority (Bahrain)
The 13th Innovation for Cool Earth Forum (ICEF) Annual Meeting was held — Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
9 October – World Post Day — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-10-09
Qatar Financial Centre — Qatar Financial Centre Authority
Web-TV: SNB events — SNB 2026-10-10
Water Resources — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-09
Road Traffic Acts — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-09
TAGWELL LIMITED — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-09
SHIFT INSIGHT LIMITED — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-09
Water Resources — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-09