The Fed lifts its target range to 4% with PCE at 3.8%, tightening into an AI data-center bond boom the Dallas Fed blames for the term premium.

The Fed's hike to 4% and the Dallas Fed's multi-trillion-dollar AI capex estimate describe one mechanism from two ends: long-dated data-center issuance running into the hundreds of billions this year is pushing the term premium up while the Fed tightens into it, and the move of roughly a third of a percentage point across the curve from the front end out to the ten-year is the price of both. India's tightening runs the same direction for a different reason — the RBI raised the repo rate to 5.5% only after its overnight absorption filled to target, and its 29-day drain then drew bids far below the notified amount, so banks are locking in the cut-off floor for a month rather than parking cash daily. Ukraine's reserve drain and Korea's current account surplus are the mirror pair: both are external buffers, but Korea's surplus exceeds its financial-account build while Ukraine's interventions and debt repayments outrun partner inflows. The Bahamas sanctions re-list and the PRA's GDP-indexed thresholds share a compliance channel rather than a market one, and the Kyrgyz five- and ten-year auctions set a positive term cost against a curve that had priced near-free money.