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Market briefing · 2026-09-30 Wednesday · Preview

Beijing pays 1% a year on new first-home mortgages of up to 120 m², putting the subsidy straight into borrowers' monthly interest rather than banks' funding cost.

The big picture

Three central banks moved in the same week in opposite directions, and the reason is the same in each case: the exchange rate did the work that the policy rate did not. The SNB held at 0% while the franc fell 3% on a trade-weighted basis, loosening conditions without a cut; the Bank of Jamaica raised to 6% with headline inflation at 7.9% and expectations at 7.3%, leaving the real rate barely positive; the Fed's September rise to 4% is the backdrop both are reading against. China's mortgage subsidy is the same logic run through the fiscal channel — 90% of the cost sits with the central government, so the relief reaches the household without touching the policy rate or the banks' spread. The two Indian entries describe one plumbing problem rather than two events: the overnight auction drew only a fraction of its notified size, so the system holds more cash than the RBI intended to absorb and the drain has to be repeated. What none of the pieces say is whether the franc's slide or the rupiah-scale liquidity overhang is the more durable: the SNB's forecast keeps inflation at 0.8% through 2028, which is a bet that the depreciation does not feed through.

On the watchlist

  • The RBI's next variable rate reverse repo auction: a cut-off below the rate that prevailed before the September 30 shortfall would confirm the system is still holding excess cash.
  • Bank of Russia's air-defence risk-weight relief expires 31 December 2026, and its renewal or lapse decides whether the reduced risk weights survive into next year's capital planning.
  • The Bank of Italy's countercyclical buffer for the first quarter of 2027, after four consecutive quarters at zero, is the next date at which the wedge with Cyprus's positive rate can narrow.
  • Swiss CPI for September, published in early October, is the first test of whether the franc's trade-weighted depreciation is passing into prices.

What moved

3 of 10 releases rated high today; the others lead their sections.

Decisions & policy

3 pieces · 8 more releases

Beijing subsidises first-home mortgages nationwide

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— PBoC
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Data

3 pieces · 32 more releases

Economic picture less negative in September — Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 2026-09-30
Interest Rates (Aug 2026) — Bank of Korea (BOK) 2026-09-30
Annually Indonesian Flow-of-Funds Accounts 2021-2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Economic Indicators July 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Export-Import Unit Value Index, July 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Show all 32 items
Monthly Foreign Trade Statistical Exports, July 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Monthly Report of Socio-Economic Data August 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Monthly Foreign Trade Statistics: Imports, July 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Data — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
Total dwelling approvals fall 6.1% in August — Australian Bureau of Statistics
Discover > — Securities and Futures Commission (Hong Kong)
Agricultural Prices — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
9/29/2026 — Central Bank of Myanmar 2026-09-29
Production and deliveries of energy products - July 2026 — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Exchange rates of 28-09-2026 — Bank of the Republic of Burundi
Exchange rates of 29-09-2026 — Bank of the Republic of Burundi

Issuance & auctions

2 pieces · 22 more releases

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Announcement: — Central Bank of Libya 2026-09-29

Regulation & supervision

3 pieces · 36 more releases

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Pay your Economic Crime Levy — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-30
Submit a return for the Economic Crime Levy — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-30
Additional CSSF operational instructions on DORA major ICT-related incident reporting — Commission de surveillance du secteur financier (Luxembourg)
Circular CSSF-CODERES 26/22 29 September 2026 - CSSF circular — Commission de surveillance du secteur financier (Luxembourg)
Updated sanctions notice: ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida — Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) 2026-09-29
IOEAMA UNSCR Ref SC16465 ISIL (Da’esh) and Al-Qaida 28 September 2026 — Securities Commission of The Bahamas 2026-09-29
Decisions from the meeting of 29.09.2026 — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Asset managers must further strengthen ICT recovery — The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets 2026-09-29
Sanctions Notice - ISIL (Da'esh) and Al-Qaida — Guernsey Financial Services Commission 2026-09-29
Online investment tips? Recognise the red flags! — The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets 2026-09-29
Election To Pay in Installments Tax on Gain From Certain Farmland Property — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-09-29

Speeches & research

2 pieces · 25 more releases

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Bowman, Opening Remarks — Fed 2026-09-29

The week ahead

Dates named in today’s releases that fall within the next seven days · no model involved.

In brief

128 releases

Show all 120 items
Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey — Dallas Fed 2026-09-29
Annual Gross Domestic Product — Department of Statistics (Bermuda)
CONSTRUCTION STATISTICS – June Quarter 2026 — Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics 2026-09-29
Structural Business Statistics, 2024 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-29
Producer Price Indices in Services, 2nd Quarter 2026 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-29
Demography — Instituto Nacional de Estadísticas (Chile)
Export and import price indices - 2025 - final data — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Producer prices in services - Q2 2026 — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Export and import price indices - Q2 2026 - preliminary data — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Directory of Indonesian Rubber Estate Crops Establishment 2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Migrant Profile Result of Socio-Economics National Survey 2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-28
Statistics of Indonesia Manufacturing Industry 2024 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-30
Notice inviting tender proposals — National Statistics Office (Nepal)
Handbook with updated macroeconomic model — Financial Supervisory Authority (Iceland)
Coast Guard: Additional Action Needed to Address Marine Firefighting Challenges — U.S. Government Accountability Office 2026-09-29
Armenia's climate risk maps presented — Central Bank of Armenia
Meeting of the financial market single window — Commission d'Organisation et de Surveillance des Opérations de Bourse (Algeria) 2026-09-28
EIOPA notice on progress in its simplification initiatives — Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency 2026-09-29
Bermuda Employment statistics — Department of Statistics (Bermuda)
Preparation and testing in focus of the transition to T+1 — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-09-29
Guidance: Tax-free savings newsletter 23 — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
Consumer Price Index — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
Publication Calendar — Instituto Nacional de Estatística (Angola)
Transparency data: DBT: special advisers' gifts, hospitality and meetings, April to June 2026 — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
Culture 2024 — Statistics Austria
The date with most birthdays is 30 September — Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 2026-09-30
AFSA Publishes Results of Thematic Review of Fund Managers — Astana Financial Services Authority (AIFC) 2026-09-29
Apply for business rates for a self-catering property in England — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
Brian D. Yarch — SEC 2026-09-29
Deactivated validations — BaFin 2026-09-28
29 September — Bureau of National Statistics (Kazakhstan)
ZiraatBank BH d.d. in IPS BH — Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina
CMC holds Award Ceremony for the 1st Edition of the CMC Júnior Contest — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-09-28
Manager's transaction - Adérito Neto — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-09-29
Transparency data: DBT: ministerial overseas travel and meetings, April to June 2026 — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
The Bermuda Census — Department of Statistics (Bermuda)
115-02-13 Notice of the 2025 Manpower Utilization Survey schedule — Directorate General of Budget Accounting and Statistics (Taiwan)
Press release on the suspension of trading in WAREHOUSES DE PAUW (WDP) — Financial Services and Markets Authority (Belgium) 2026-09-29
Guidance: Customs data report descriptions — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
Check the amount of guarantee you need for transit movements — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-29
2026 LP Gas Consumer Safety Month (from October 1) — Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
October is Wood Use Promotion Month — Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
More details... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Signing of a letter of intent on cooperation between the UKNF and the 18th SBOT — Polish Financial Supervision Authority 2026-09-29
Association of Sustainability Professionals — Securities Commission (Malaysia)

120 of 128 items are listed above; the complete set is in the status report.