The big picture
Three central banks moved in the same week in opposite directions, and the reason is the same in each case: the exchange rate did the work that the policy rate did not. The SNB held at 0% while the franc fell 3% on a trade-weighted basis, loosening conditions without a cut; the Bank of Jamaica raised to 6% with headline inflation at 7.9% and expectations at 7.3%, leaving the real rate barely positive; the Fed's September rise to 4% is the backdrop both are reading against. China's mortgage subsidy is the same logic run through the fiscal channel — 90% of the cost sits with the central government, so the relief reaches the household without touching the policy rate or the banks' spread. The two Indian entries describe one plumbing problem rather than two events: the overnight auction drew only a fraction of its notified size, so the system holds more cash than the RBI intended to absorb and the drain has to be repeated. What none of the pieces say is whether the franc's slide or the rupiah-scale liquidity overhang is the more durable: the SNB's forecast keeps inflation at 0.8% through 2028, which is a bet that the depreciation does not feed through.
On the watchlist
- The RBI's next variable rate reverse repo auction: a cut-off below the rate that prevailed before the September 30 shortfall would confirm the system is still holding excess cash.
- Bank of Russia's air-defence risk-weight relief expires 31 December 2026, and its renewal or lapse decides whether the reduced risk weights survive into next year's capital planning.
- The Bank of Italy's countercyclical buffer for the first quarter of 2027, after four consecutive quarters at zero, is the next date at which the wedge with Cyprus's positive rate can narrow.
- Swiss CPI for September, published in early October, is the first test of whether the franc's trade-weighted depreciation is passing into prices.