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Market briefing · 2026-09-29 Tuesday · Preview

The ECB extends full-allotment funding at parity with the MRO rate into the fourth quarter as banks term out against balance-sheet run-off.

The big picture

Two central banks are moving in opposite directions on the same instrument. Norges Bank raised its policy rate to 4.5% with CPI at 3.3% and core at 3%, both below its own path, while the ECB keeps its 84-day longer-term refinancing operation priced at parity with the average main refinancing operations rate, with full allotment. The RBI is draining liquidity through a one-day variable rate reverse repo of ₹111,711 crore and a standing deposit facility of ₹224,503 crore, leaving net liquidity injected from today's operations at ₹−336,013 crore; the overnight segment cleared at a weighted average rate of 5.06% on volume of ₹742,309.96 crore. The fiscal cost of higher policy rates is the thread linking Oslo and London: the UK Chancellor is repurposing the National Wealth Fund's existing capitalisation to create and support 130,000 jobs by 2030, with a £300m Rolls-Royce investment, funded from Department for Work & Pensions savings rather than new gilt supply.

On the watchlist

  • Japan's Ministry of Finance auctions the October 2026 ten-year government bond on 6 October, with a second non-price competitive auction for special participants from the afternoon of the auction date.
  • The ECB's 84-day longer-term refinancing operation settles on 30 September at parity with the average main refinancing operations rate, with full allotment against eligible collateral.
  • The RBI's one-day variable rate reverse repo auction on 29 September drains liquidity from the banking system, its first overnight absorption since the operation that reversed on 24 September.
  • Finland's Financial Supervisory Authority holds its 28 September 2026 press conference on simplifying EU and national banking regulation without weakening resilience.
  • Kyrgyzstan's National Bank extended the temporary permission for commercial banks to export unworn cash US dollars until 1 April 2027.

What moved

3 of 5 releases rated high today; the others lead their sections.

Decisions & policy

3 pieces · 2 more releases

Norges Bank lifts rate as inflation undershoots its own path

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— BIS

Data

3 pieces · 20 more releases

Show all 20 items
Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey — Dallas Fed 2026-09-28
Special Questions — Dallas Fed 2026-09-28
Banking Conditions Survey — Dallas Fed 2026-09-28
CPI August 2026 — Maldives Bureau of Statistics 2026-09-28
Electricity and natural gas prices, first half of 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Crop Progress — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
9/28/2026 — Central Bank of Myanmar 2026-09-28
Half of foreign equities are held via investment funds — Danmarks Nationalbank 2026-09-28

Issuance & auctions

3 pieces · 18 more releases

Show all 18 items

Regulation & supervision

3 pieces · 19 more releases

Operational guidance for incident handling 28 September 2026 - Press release — Commission de surveillance du secteur financier (Luxembourg)
News about taxonomies — Danish Financial Supervisory Authority
Read more — Central Bank of Cuba
Finanstilsynet warns against Eurkron Finans AS — Financial Supervisory Authority of Norway
Show all 19 items
www.dfx.cn and the others — Securities and Futures Commission (Hong Kong)
Zoe Financial, Inc. — SEC 2026-09-28
SECURITIES INDUSTRY (FOREIGN FUNDS) GUIDELINES 2026 — Securities and Exchange Commission (Ghana) 2026-09-28
FSC Regulatory Advisory: UNSCRIA Gazetted Regulations (DPRK Sanctions Regime) — Financial Services Commission of Jamaica 2026-09-28
Apply for approval for Vaping Products Duty and the Vaping Duty Stamps Scheme — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
CBIZ, Inc. — SEC 2026-09-28

Speeches & research

2 pieces · 22 more releases

Show all 22 items
Who’s Borrowing and Lending in Repo Markets? — Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed) 2026-09-28
Frankfurt Sheets, issue 45 / September 2026 — National Bank of Slovakia 2026-09-28
Views on the Future | Rosario 2026 — Comisión Nacional de Valores (Argentina)
Remarks by Comptroller Gould before the Military Banking Summit 2026 — Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (USA) 2026-09-28
Plamen Danailov: Insurers will compete for drivers with clean records — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-09-28

The week ahead

Dates named in today’s releases that fall within the next seven days · no model involved.

In brief

100 releases

Show all 100 items
Volume index of industrial production in Brčko District, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Industrial producer price index — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Industrial production — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
April 2026 Retail Sales Index — Department of Statistics (Bermuda)
April 2026 Consumer Price Index — Department of Statistics (Bermuda)
WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE STATISTICS – June Quarter 2026 — Fiji Islands Bureau of Statistics 2026-09-29
Building Activity, June 2026 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-28
Road freight transport, 1st quarter 2026 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-28
Industrial Products Survey (PRODCOM), 2025 — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
TIMOR-LESTE BUSINESS ACTIVITY SURVEY 2025 — Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Timor-Leste 2026-09-28
2025 Census of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (final results) — Ministry of Data and Statistics (South Korea)
Honam Regional Data Office — Ministry of Data and Statistics (South Korea)
Northeast Regional Data Office — Ministry of Data and Statistics (South Korea)
Q2 2026 real gross regional domestic product (GRDP) — Ministry of Data and Statistics (South Korea)
Gyeongin Regional Data Office — Ministry of Data and Statistics (South Korea)
Physical energy flow accounts (PEFA) 2026 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Migrant Profile Result of Socio-Economics National Survey 2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-28
L'Europe, C'est Nous — BIS 2026-09-28
Investigating non-response to the Labour Force Survey using administrative data — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Quarterly consultation on the capital market and insurance sector held — Croatian Financial Services Supervisory Agency 2026-09-25
The Danish FSA's disclosure obligation — Danish Financial Supervisory Authority
More... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
September 28 — Bureau of National Statistics (Kazakhstan)
How much do we play? — ISTAT 2026-09-28
Road Accidents, August 2026 — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
Book Publishing and Press 2025 — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-28
Guidance: How to apply for or renew a gangmaster's licence — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Provide or update your partnership details for VAT — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Corporate report: Redbox@DBT trial: evaluation report — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Activities of the Central Bureau of Statistics 2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-25
DAB, ACGF Sign MoU on Cooperation — Bank of Afghanistan
Announcement on the Resignation of an Executive Member of the Board of Directors — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-09-28
Chamber Low Carbon - Lancashire — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
FSC launches Facebook page with investment warnings — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-09-28
Negligible value claims and agreements — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
Apply to make changes to your approval as an authorised excise warehousekeeper — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-28
HKICL alerts public of fraudulent website — Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Scam alert related to banks — Hong Kong Monetary Authority
More... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
More details... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Dissolution of Partnership — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-28