The big picture
Two central banks are moving in opposite directions on the same instrument. Norges Bank raised its policy rate to 4.5% with CPI at 3.3% and core at 3%, both below its own path, while the ECB keeps its 84-day longer-term refinancing operation priced at parity with the average main refinancing operations rate, with full allotment. The RBI is draining liquidity through a one-day variable rate reverse repo of ₹111,711 crore and a standing deposit facility of ₹224,503 crore, leaving net liquidity injected from today's operations at ₹−336,013 crore; the overnight segment cleared at a weighted average rate of 5.06% on volume of ₹742,309.96 crore. The fiscal cost of higher policy rates is the thread linking Oslo and London: the UK Chancellor is repurposing the National Wealth Fund's existing capitalisation to create and support 130,000 jobs by 2030, with a £300m Rolls-Royce investment, funded from Department for Work & Pensions savings rather than new gilt supply.
On the watchlist
- Japan's Ministry of Finance auctions the October 2026 ten-year government bond on 6 October, with a second non-price competitive auction for special participants from the afternoon of the auction date.
- The ECB's 84-day longer-term refinancing operation settles on 30 September at parity with the average main refinancing operations rate, with full allotment against eligible collateral.
- The RBI's one-day variable rate reverse repo auction on 29 September drains liquidity from the banking system, its first overnight absorption since the operation that reversed on 24 September.
- Finland's Financial Supervisory Authority holds its 28 September 2026 press conference on simplifying EU and national banking regulation without weakening resilience.
- Kyrgyzstan's National Bank extended the temporary permission for commercial banks to export unworn cash US dollars until 1 April 2027.