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Market briefing · 2026-09-26 Saturday · Preview

Japan's 10-year yield briefly climbed to a level unseen in about thirty years after the BOJ raised its policy rate.

The big picture

Sovereign funding costs are repricing at the long end across very different credits, and the common cause is the tenor itself rather than the macro cycle. Slovenia's harmonised long-term convergence yield now sits above the coupon on its RS98 bond due 2036, so the cost of that outstanding paper rises even as real GDP growth runs at 5%; the Kyrgyz Republic cleared 10-year paper above its announced coupon, a gap that prices its first extension into that tenor. Japan sits at the extreme of the same mechanism: the 10-year briefly rose past a level last seen about three decades ago after the BOJ raised its policy rate, and the Ministry of Finance is now running bill auctions without disclosing a cut-off, leaving the market to infer the funding cost from settlement flows. India is doing the opposite — extending its curve to 50-year paper while holding weekly auction sizes in a narrow band, and pricing the Centre's intra-year cash gap through the Ways and Means Advances ceiling. Denmark shows the balance-sheet version: a second-quarter surplus in the mid-thirty-billions of kroner alongside EMU debt at 27% of GDP, because longer-dated issuance and short-term municipal borrowing lifted the stock in the same quarter that equity revaluations cut public financial net worth.

On the watchlist

  • The Reserve Bank of India's first dated-security auction of the second half of fiscal 2026-27, on the indicative calendar spanning twenty-three auction weeks, tests whether the narrow weekly band holds at the 50-year point.
  • Japan's Ministry of Finance settlement flows for Treasury Discount Bills No. 1409, auctioned 25 September, are the only read on the funding cost after no cut-off was disclosed.
  • Banca d'Italia's next quarterly countercyclical buffer decision, after leaving the rate at zero per cent for 2026-Q4 with the credit-to-GDP gap deeply negative.
  • Ecuador's third-quarter GDP release, after 2.1% year on year in 2026-Q2 and a July activity rebound driven by oil and mining up 102%.
  • The EIB's housing financing across Europe, against its €6bn target for 2026, after €3.4bn went to France over five years.

What moved

3 of 5 releases rated high today; the others lead their sections.

Decisions & policy

3 pieces · 2 more releases

Japan opens budget requests under investment framework

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Monetary Policy Statement - 25 Sept 2026 — The Central Bank of Eswatini 2026-09-25
Statement of the 121st Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) — Central Bank of Lesotho 2026-09-25

Data

3 pieces · 31 more releases

Financial Sector Data — Bank of Guyana
Consumer Price Index, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
PRODUCER PRICE INDEX RECORDS A VARIATION OF 1.88% IN AUGUST 2026 — Instituto Nacional de Estadística (Bolivia) 2026-09-25
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Annual Report on Banking Conditions in the WAEMU - 2025 — Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) 2026-09-25
Data on doubtful loans (August 2026) — Banco de España 2026-09-25
Data on deposits (September 2026) — Banco de España 2026-09-25
Financing in the Eurosystem (September 2026) — Banco de España 2026-09-25
External Trade Statistics August 2026 — Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Timor-Leste 2026-09-25
Consumer Price Index August 2026 — Instituto Nacional de Estatística de Timor-Leste 2026-09-25
Potatoes — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
9/25/2026 — Central Bank of Myanmar 2026-09-25
Macroeconomic forecasts of selected banks – September 2026 — National Bank of Slovakia 2026-09-25
Interest-only mortgage debt approaching 50 per cent — Danmarks Nationalbank 2026-09-25
Exchange rates of 25-09-2026 — Bank of the Republic of Burundi

Issuance & auctions

3 pieces · 10 more releases

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Regulation & supervision

3 pieces · 26 more releases

Sanctions Penalties Regulations — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-09-25
Terrorism List Governments Sanctions Regulations — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-09-25
Guidance: Excise tax types, excise duty rates and supplementary guidance — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-26
Guidance: Tax types for Data Element 4/3 of the Customs Declaration Service — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-26
Show all 26 items
https://www.ultimamarkets.com and the others — Securities and Futures Commission (Hong Kong)
Johnathan Denha — SEC 2026-09-25
VAT Payments on Account Regime — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Entry into force of the Legal Regime for Holding Company Management Companies (SGPS) — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-09-25
Make Work Pay: duty to inform workers of right to join a union — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Caribbean Netherlands: mortgage advice guideline available for the Caribbean Netherlands — The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets 2026-09-25
FSC has taken action to block a copy of a popular website over potential financial fraud — Financial Supervision Commission (Bulgaria) 2026-09-25
Estate Tax Closing Letter User Fee Update — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-09-25

Speeches & research

2 pieces · 15 more releases

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The week ahead

Dates named in today’s releases that fall within the next seven days · no model involved.

In brief

116 releases

Show all 116 items
Monthly indices of industrial production, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Industrial producer price index, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Average consumer prices, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Volume index of industrial production, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Building permits issued, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Data on banknotes and coins (September 2026) — Banco de España 2026-09-25
25 September — Bureau of National Statistics (Kazakhstan)
Household Budget Survey, 2025 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-25
Strength of the Greek Merchant Fleet (Provisional Data), July 2026 — Hellenic Statistical Authority (Greece) 2026-09-25
Movements of Citizens, August 2026 — Institute of Statistics (Albania)
Compiled the FY2025 (Reiwa 7) Consumer Consultation Report — Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
Retail sales fell in August — Statistics Denmark
Unemployment was 0.9 percent in August — Statistics Faroe Islands 2026-09-25
Spending by tourists rose by around 3 percent in 2025 — Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 2026-09-25
Poultry Slaughter — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
Peanut Stocks and Processing — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
FD column Laura van Geest: Fewer square kilometres in The Hague, more vision — The Netherlands Authority for the Financial Markets 2026-09-25
Chiara Scotti speaks at Rome Future Week 2026 — Banca d'Italia 2026-09-25
IDB Regional Policy Dialogue for the Financial Sector — Comisión Nacional de Valores (Argentina)
23.09.26 Meeting of the Halk Maslahaty of Turkmenistan — State Committee on Statistics (Turkmenistan)
Mortality by ethnic group following death certification reform, England and Wales: 2025 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Death certification reform, England and Wales: 2025 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Deaths registered in England and Wales: 2025 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Mortality by pregnancy status following Death Certification Reform, England and Wales: 2025 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Almost a quarter of students spend time abroad — Statistics Netherlands (CBS) 2026-09-25
Peanut Prices — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
Turkeys Raised — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
Cold Storage — USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service (Today’s Reports)
Fifth Street Management, LLC — SEC 2026-09-25
Venar Ayar — SEC 2026-09-25
25.09.2026. 20 October: Anniversary of European Statistics Day — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Orange Tropical Cyclone POLO-26 in Mexico from: 21 Sep 2026 to: 25 Sep 2026. — GDACS (UN/EU Global Disaster Alert and Coordination System) 2026-09-21
Notice: Excise duty drawback (Excise Notice 207) — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
How to get an agent reference number for PAYE — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Guidance: Find software suppliers for the Excise Movement and Control System — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Guidance: Corporation Tax technical specifications for CT600 RIM artefacts — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Form: Excise movements: notice of intention to claim drawback (EX75) — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-09-25
Scam alert related to banks — Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Award ceremony for the Japan Startup Award 2026 was held — Ministry of Economy Trade and Industry (Japan)
25 September – World Pharmacists Day — National Statistical Institute (Bulgaria) 2026-09-25
New newsletter for our API users — Statistics Finland
Activities of the Central Bureau of Statistics 2025 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-09-25
Notices under the Trustee Act 1925 — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25
Phillip Barton — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25
Takeover Offers — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25
Notices under the Trustee Act 1925 — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25
Deputy Lieutenant Commissions — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25
Notices under the Trustee Act 1925 — The Gazette (UK) 2026-09-25