The big picture
Two central banks moved in opposite directions on the same day, and both were reacting to the same global supply picture. Azerbaijan held its discount rate at 6.5% but lowered the corridor floor to 5%, a technical easing that widens the band around a policy rate already below headline inflation of 5.7%; the SARB raised its policy rate to 7.25% explicitly citing Middle East and Black Sea supply shocks, with longer-run expectations at 4% rather than its 3% target. The Dutch first-half deficit of €8bn shows the fiscal side of the same pressure: spending of €273bn outran revenue of €265bn, and the shortfall was financed into a debt stock of €524bn even as the debt-to-GDP ratio slipped to 43.7% of GDP. Liquidity, meanwhile, is being absorbed rather than deployed — the RBI's overnight segment cleared at 5.09% on volume of ₹725,595.8 crore, close to the floor of its corridor, while Latvia's liquidity coverage ratio fell by roughly a quarter as lending accelerated. The thread running through the day is that central banks and governments are managing the same supply-driven inflation with different tools, and the divergence in their responses is the story.
On the watchlist
- The SARB's policy rate takes effect on 25 September 2026 at 7.25%, with the next MPC decision due later in the year.
- The RBI's Variable Rate Reverse Repo auction on 24 September 2026 will show whether absorption exceeds the September 21 operation.
- Japan's Ministry of Finance auctions local allocation tax borrowings on 1 October 2026, with settlement on 9 October and repayment on 9 April 2027.
- The Federal Court hearing in ASIC's case against Star Investment Group Australia is listed for 6 October 2026, where receivership orders will be sought.
- Taiwan's FSC reviews its sustainability disclosure regime again in 2030, leaving listed issuers below the threshold of the largest few hundred companies to disclose voluntarily until then.