The big picture
The UK's discount rate cut and Japan's yield surge both signal a repricing of long-duration public and private assets. In the UK, Chancellor Healey's reduction of the Green Book discount rate to 3% lowers the bar for long-term public projects, a direct response to a decade of debt rising from 64% of GDP to 100% of GDP. In Japan, the BOJ faces pressure as long-term yields hit a three-decade high, with Governor Ueda acknowledging upside price risks after five rate hikes. German factory output fell −1.1% month-on-month in July, with autos down −9.2%, reinforcing the case for the ECB to pause its tightening cycle. Greek data show imports surging 10.7% year-on-year in July, driven by oil, while exports rose 15.9%, widening the trade deficit and dragging on growth.
On the watchlist
- On 2026-09-09, the ECB's rate decision will show whether the German output slump shifts the policy stance toward a pause.
- Watch the 30-year JGB yield: a sustained break above the three-decade high would force the BOJ to signal a faster tightening path.
- On 2026-09-10, the UK's monthly GDP release will indicate whether the discount rate cut is translating into business investment momentum.
- Watch the Greek trade balance for August: a continued oil-driven deficit would confirm the trend and pressure the current account.