The big picture
The ECB's analysis of hyperscaler euro bond issuance and the FSB's warning on AI-driven leverage point to the same mechanism: US tech giants' funding needs are becoming a systemic feature of global markets. The ECB notes their share of reverse Yankee issuance nearly doubled to 10% in 2026, while the FSB flags the cross-investment between AI companies and hyperscalers as a channel that could amplify a disorderly correction. In India, bank credit growth accelerated to 16.5% year-on-year, nearly double the pace a year ago, with private corporate borrowing jumping to 21.1% — a domestic mirror of the global credit surge. These threads share a common driver: leverage is building in both advanced and emerging economies, and the FSB's letter to the G20 warns that fragilities in sovereign debt markets could turn a shock into a cross-border event.
On the watchlist
- ECB Governing Council meeting on 2026-09-10: whether the staff projections incorporate the hyperscaler issuance trend into the euro-area credit outlook.
- RBI monetary policy announcement on 2026-10-07: whether the credit-deposit gap at 16.5% versus 11.5% triggers a change in the liquidity stance.
- Bank Indonesia policy decision on 2026-09-17: whether the trade deficit and money supply contraction at €40bn alter the rate path.
- First settlement under the Indonesia-Singapore LCT framework: confirmation of operational readiness for rupiah-singdollar transactions.
- US dollar index response to a one-standard-deviation uncertainty shock, as quantified in the Fed's International Finance Discussion Paper.