The big picture
Central banks are splitting along the fault line of inflation persistence. Norges Bank defends a policy rate 2pp above Sweden and Denmark, forecasting a rise to 4.5% by year-end, while the ECB keeps rates unchanged even as the Middle East conflict pushes energy prices higher and risks to inflation tilt upside. The Bank of Korea hikes to 4.25% on stronger growth, underscoring the divergence. Meanwhile, the Fed's balance sheet is quantified as a repo market force, with a substantial amount of coupon issuance raising repo rates by 3.9bp.
On the watchlist
- 2026-09-01: Norges Bank's next policy decision, whether the rate forecast of 4.5% is confirmed.
- 2026-09-10: ECB Governing Council meeting, whether the energy shock triggers a rate change.
- 2026-09-15: Bank of Korea's next meeting, whether the 4.5% base rate holds.
- 2026-10-01: China's September industrial profits release, whether the 2% pace persists.
- 2026-09-30: Delivery Hero shareholders' acceptance of Uber's 4.25% offer, whether the minimum threshold is met.
Top stories
Why it matters A widening rate differential to 2pp against Sweden and Denmark strengthens the krone, pressuring import prices and complicating the inflation fight for Norwegian bondholders.
Norges Bank Governor defended the inflation target and flexible inflation targeting in the Schweigaard Lecture, arguing that a restrictive policy rate is needed to bring inflation back to target despite trade-offs with employment. The policy rate in Norway is now considerably higher than in Sweden and Denmark, reflecting domestic conditions and a floating exchange rate. The Bank's June forecast indicated an increase from 4.25% to just above 4.5% by year-end, which would widen the rate differential further, potentially strengthening the krone and pressuring import prices.
- Inflation target 2%
- Policy rate differential vs Sweden/Denmark 2pp
Why it matters Treasury issuance mechanically lifts repo rates by 3.9bp per a large amount, raising funding costs for levered investors and money market funds.
A FEDS Note estimates that large-scale Treasury coupon issuance raises repo rates by 3.9bp basis points, and bill issuance by 1.3bp basis points, based on data from September 2014 to March 2026. The overnight Treasury repo market, with over $8trn in daily volume, is a key transmission channel for Fed balance sheet policy.
- SOFR spike in Sep 2019 280bp
- Effect of 1bp TGCR increase on EFFR 0bp
- Tri-party repo daily volume 1.5 trillion usd
- Reserve management Treasury bill purchases 120 billion usd
- EFFR during Sept 2019 spike 2.3%
- EFFR-IORB spread −1bp
Why it matters The multi-billion-euro approval channels EU funds into strategic sectors, easing fiscal pressure on member states and supporting green bond supply.
The European Investment Bank approved €9.2bn in new financing, including €4.3bn for companies across nine EU countries, with a focus on security, defence, space, energy, and agriculture. The package also funds electricity networks in Germany and Greece, solar in Italy, and a rail link between Croatia and Hungary. This scale of lending underscores the EIB's role in channelling EU funds into strategic sectors, potentially easing fiscal pressures on member states and supporting green bond issuance.
Why it matters UK productivity growth at roughly a third of the US rate constrains supply, adding to inflationary pressure and complicating Bank of England policy.
UK market-sector productivity growth averaged 0.5% per year from 2008 to 2025, well below the US 1.7% and the euro area 0.6%, according to a Bank Underground analysis. The slowdown reflects the end of the ICT revolution, a larger decline in manufacturing share, and Brexit, which the Bank of England estimates will leave potential productivity a few percentage points lower by 2028. Weak productivity growth constrains the supply side of the economy, potentially adding to inflationary pressures and complicating the Bank of England's policy stance, as it must balance growth and inflation objectives.
- Impact of hours measurement revision on productivity growth 0.4%
- Contribution of IT and information services to US productivi 12%
- Share of IT and information services in US output 4%
Why it matters A roughly one-sixth profit surge in Chinese industrial firms supports equity valuations and signals resilience that could influence global commodity demand.
China's industrial enterprises above designated size reported a 17.6% year-on-year rise in profits for January-July 2026, reaching CN¥45.82trn, with operating revenue up 6.5%. July alone saw profits grow 11.2% year-on-year, indicating sustained momentum. This robust earnings growth could support equity valuations and signal resilience in China's manufacturing, potentially influencing global commodity demand and trade flows.
Also today
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The Bank of Korea raised its Base Rate to 3%, with six members supporting and one voting against, citing stronger-than-expected growth and inflation expected to stay above target. The Bank revised its GDP growth forecasts up to 3.3% for 2026 and 2.9% for 2027, from lower readings in May, while core inflation forecasts were raised for both years. The move signals a continued tightening bias, supporting the won and potentially narrowing the yield differential with US Treasuries, which could attract foreign capital into Korean bonds.
- CPI inflation 2.8%
- Core inflation (ex food and energy) 2.6%
- CPI inflation forecast 2.7%
- CPI inflation forecast 2.3%
- Core inflation forecast 2.5% (2026 2.4%)
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The channel to public finance runs through KfW's promotional lending: as household uptake of these technologies rises, demand for KfW's subsidized credit programs grows, affecting its funding needs and the federal budget's interest subsidies.
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The surge, driven by non-adjustable Treasury bonds (the vast majority of volume), signals deepening local capital markets, potentially easing Angola's reliance on external financing and affecting sovereign bond spreads. The data comes from the Comissão do Mercado de Capitais quarterly report; the next release will show whether growth persists and whether foreign investor participation expands.
Deep dives
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The ECB Governing Council kept all three key interest rates unchanged at its July 2026 meeting, even as the Middle East conflict pushed energy prices higher and risks to inflation tilted clearly to the upside. Headline HICP inflation fell to 2.8% in June from 2.4% in May, surprising to the downside, while core inflation eased to 8.5% from 1.5%. The Council stressed that the full inflationary impact of the energy shock had yet to materialize, with indirect and second-round effects expected to emerge over time.
The decision reflects a delicate balance: energy inflation, though down from 89 USD/BBL to 16%, remains elevated, and European gas prices have jumped 1.14 USD/EUR since the June meeting. Oil prices, at 6.2%, are slightly lower than in June, but the resumption of hostilities has driven them back up. Some Council members warned against taking too much reassurance from the June HICP outcome, given the renewed energy price pressures.
The ECB's hold, despite upside inflation risks, keeps real rates negative and supports the euro area recovery, but it also means fiscal financing conditions remain accommodative. The account notes that bank lending rates for firms and market-based debt costs held steady at 3.2% and 50 in May, while mortgage rates rose to 3.6%. With unemployment at 4% and the composite PMI at 3.5%, the economy is resilient, but the energy shock could push inflation higher, forcing the ECB to act sooner than markets currently price.
- Market-based inflation compensation, 2026 average 2.9%
- Market-based inflation compensation, 2027 average 2.3%
- Market-based inflation compensation, 2028 average 2%
- Negotiated wage growth (with unsmoothed one-off payments), 2 2.6%
- Negotiated wage growth (with unsmoothed one-off payments), Q 2.7%
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Uber International Technologies II Corporation has published a voluntary public takeover offer for all Delivery Hero SE shares at €41.5 per share, aiming to combine Delivery Hero's local brands with Uber's global platform. The offer is subject to a minimum acceptance threshold of 153.235.660 shares shares, which corresponds to a majority stake, and to regulatory approvals in multiple jurisdictions.
The bidder has secured irrevocable tender commitments from Prosus for 51.116.174 shares shares (roughly a sixth of share capital) and has already purchased 12.673.663 shares shares on the market (about a twenty-fourth). SMB Holding, a major shareholder, holds 24.77% of Delivery Hero's share capital. The offer price represents a premium over the three-month average share price, and the bidder considers it fair and adequate. The offer does not extend to Delivery Hero ADRs; holders must convert to shares first.
The acquisition will be financed through a bridge loan and existing cash, which will increase Uber's leverage and affect its credit profile. Uber expects the deal to increase its adjusted EPS by nearly a tenth by the third year. Delivery Hero reported 2025 revenue of €14.06bn and adjusted EBITDA of €903m, while Uber Group reported 2025 revenue of $52.02bn. The combined pro-forma gross bookings for 2025 would be $236bn. The offer is not subject to a minimum acceptance condition if the threshold is not met, but the bidder may waive conditions. Risks include litigation, regulatory conditions, and integration challenges.
- Delivery Hero Q1 2026 segment revenue €3.73bn
- Delivery Hero employees 46.956 employees
- Uber Group employees 34.000 employees
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Inflation stood at 2.9% in July 2026, while the general government deficit was −2.5% of GDP of GDP in 2025 and debt reached 65.7% of GDP of GDP at end-2025. The current account surplus was €2.49bn in 2025, and gross external debt was €67.13bn at mid-2026, while net external debt was negative at −€10.06bn, indicating Slovenia remains a net external creditor.
The bulletin compiles statistical data from the Bank of Slovenia and other sources, covering monetary, financial, and macroeconomic conditions. However, the strong growth momentum and moderate inflation provide some offsetting support.
For investors, the key mechanism is that higher long-term yields increase the government's refinancing costs, potentially widening the deficit if growth slows. Yet the current growth surge, if sustained, could improve the debt dynamics. The bulletin's data also show a trade surplus of €3.82bn in 2025, underpinning the external position.
- Real GDP growth, y/y 5% (2025 1.1%)
- General government balance, % of GDP −2.5% of GDP
- Total number of publications 317
In brief
Rates & Bonds 35 items
Across thirty-five releases, central banks and statistical offices reported a wide range of rates and indicators, with several showing notable moves. The RBI's 182-day T-bill yield stood at 5.62%, while its overnight weighted average rate was 5.01%. The Bank of Finland noted that euro area countries without a national card scheme number 13 in 2026. The Fed's wholesale CBP received within one hour reached 73.1% in 2025, and the BoE's gross capital issuance for July was £84.4bn. The PBoC increased its relending quota by CN¥5bn, and the Reserve Bank of Fiji kept its Overnight Policy Rate at 0.25%. The Bank of Japan's holdings of the 10-year JGB issue were ¥8.03trn, and its reserves balances at the BoE were £640.7bn. The Danmarks Nationalbank reported an average interest rate on housing debt of 3.52% for 2026. The Riksbank's analysis found Swedish fiscal and monetary policy largely aligned during 2006-2025. The OBR published supplementary forecast information on the loan charge review costing. The CBR released data on non-resident investments in OFZ and maximum deposit rates. The BoJ provided core inflation estimates and real trade data. The RBA's decomposition attributed elevated inflation to labour costs, rents, and import prices. Destatis reported real wages up 1.5% year on year in Q2, while Statistics Finland's consumer confidence indicator was -3,0 balance and old share dwelling prices in Turku rose −6.4%. The Croatian Bureau of Statistics showed GDP growth of 1.7% in Q2. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported spending on information media and telecommunications equipment of 199.6% in Q1. The National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria's general government expenditure was €41.06bn for 2024. Statistics Denmark saw a change in employees of 3.600 persons month on month in June. The Agency for Statistics of Bosnia-Herzegovina's services producer price index rose 40.3% year on year in Q2. The Department of Statistics of Bermuda's CPI increased 2.4% year on year in March. The Financial Supervisory Authority of Iceland reported a loan-to-value ratio for first-time buyers of 90% for October. The RBI's sales growth was 19.4% year on year in Q1, and the BIS real house prices rose −1.2% year on year in Q1. Banca d'Italia's M3 annual growth was 3.4% in July. The Bank Underground's UK food inflation annual average was 4.2% for 2025. The NBK's Brent oil price was $82.7 for 2026. The Instituto Nacional de Estadística of Bolivia's PPI rose 5.09% month on month in July.
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Equities & Sectors 4 items
Across four items, the focus was on sectoral and corporate developments. Statistics Netherlands reported semiconductor sector turnover of €45.6bn for 2025, while China's NBS new momentum index was 153. The CBR identified two individuals for market manipulation on the Moscow Exchange, and METI requested a report from Chubu Electric Power on inappropriate cost claims related to the Hamaoka decommissioning.
Commodities & Energy 3 items
Across three items, the themes were regulatory determinations and bilateral cooperation. The U.S. Federal Register published a determination under the Executive Order in question, Japan's Vice-Minister Yamada met with Chile's Foreign Minister to discuss minerals and energy, and the USDA reported citrus utilized production of 5.30 million tons.
FX & Emerging Markets 5 items
Across five items, central banks and regulators addressed payment systems and remittances. The PBoC's Vice Governor attended a payment forum, Bolivia's central bank noted a decline in remittances, the RBA discussed RMB internationalisation, Nepal Rastra Bank removed transaction limits on remittances, and the National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic extended permission for banks to export worn US dollars.
Regulation & Structure 24 items
Across twenty-four items, regulators and authorities issued rules, guidance, and enforcement actions. The UK government plans to give the BoE a new secondary objective on payment innovation, while HMRC detailed pension inheritance tax reforms. The BIS examined stablecoin regulation, and the BoJ reported on generative AI use. The HKMA received 100 proposals, the Polish FSA fined PLN 55k, and the CBR identified 2,900 illegal projects and set a subsidized interest rate of 5%. The Bahamas' maximum imprisonment term is 4 years, and Nepal's interest rate spread limit is 5pp. The FCA's trust in AI tools was 56%. Other items included the FDIC's final rules, OFAC's Iran licenses, and various consultations.
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Other market topics 8 items
Across eight items, the releases covered statistics, warnings, and operational updates. Statistics Denmark reported 1,900 applications for disability car support in 2025, and the ABS showed household spending up 1.1% month on month in July. The AMF warned about investment scams, and the Kyrgyz auction for 10-year MCO was not held due to lack of demand. Other items included release calendars and insurance reminders.
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No direct market impact 19 items
Across nineteen items, the releases were mostly informational or administrative. The FRED reported that 39.2% used generative AI for work last week, and the GAO's expenditure on data and services was $76.8m. The DBT offered grant funding of £25m, and Belize's broad money supply growth was 0.7%. The Welsh Rates of Income Tax adjustment was £129m, and HMRC counted 240 crypto millionaires. The BCEAO's OECD GNP growth for 1986 was 2.5%, and Kazakhstan's total employed was 9.4 million. Cuba approved 176 economic transformations. Other items included flood alerts, household income data, and guidance updates.