The big picture
Peru's 12-month inflation expectation rose to 3.01% in July from 2.83% in June, while the 24-month expectation held at 2.43%, according to the BCRP survey. Analysts' 2026 inflation expectation jumped to 3.85% from 3.20%, yet the policy rate is expected to stay at 4.25% through 2027. This divergence between rising price expectations and a steady rate suggests the central bank sees no need to tighten despite the survey's sharper-than-expected increase. Business expectations remain optimistic, with most indicators above 50, though the demand indicator relative to expected stayed below 50 at 48.4. The regional breakdown shows broad optimism: north and south zones had 16 of 18 indicators in the optimistic range, and center and east zones had 17 of 18. Growth expectations for 2026 are 3.1–3.3%, and the policy rate expectation for 2028 is 4.00%. The survey's message is that inflation expectations are drifting upward but remain within a range the central bank tolerates. For investors, the key is whether the 3.85% analyst expectation for 2026 forces a policy response later this year. Today's briefing carries no widely reported topics, as the day's noise was filtered out: 51 items were discarded as irrelevant, mostly in macro and environment (27) and risk and regulation (19).
On the watchlist
- Peru's next BCRP policy decision on 2026-09-10, with the rate expected to hold at 4.25%.
- Peru's August inflation data, due 2026-09-01, against the 12-month expectation of 3.01%.
- Peru's 2026 inflation expectation reaching 3.85% in the next BCRP survey, due 2026-08-31.
- Peru's demand indicator rising above 50 in the next survey, from 48.4 in July.
Deep dives
Read the analysis
The July 2026 BCRP survey shows inflation expectations for 2026 rose to 3.00–3.85%, with 12-month expectations up to 3.01% from 2.83% in June, while growth expectations for 2026 are 3.1–3.3% and the policy rate is expected to stay at 4.25% through 2027. Business expectations remain optimistic, with most indicators above 50.
The 12-month inflation expectation (average of analysts and financial system) increased to 3.01% in July from 2.83% in June, while the 24-month expectation held at 2.43%. Analysts' 2026 inflation expectation rose to 3.85% from 3.20% in June. GDP growth expectation for 2026 is 3.1–3.3%, with analysts at 3.3% (up from 3.2%). The exchange rate expectation for end-2026 fell to S/ 3.35–3.40 per USD, and the 12-month expectation fell to S/ 3.37 from S/ 3.39. The policy rate expectation for end-2026 and 2027 remained at 4.25%, unchanged from June, and for 2028 it is 4.00%.
Business expectations remain optimistic: 16 of 18 indicators were above 50, and the 12-month economy expectation rose to 72.1 from 68.6. However, expectations for input and sale prices at 3 months decreased, and the demand indicator relative to expected remained below 50 at 48.4. The regional survey (326 firms) showed most current situation indicators improved in north, south, and east zones but declined in the central zone.
The rise in 12-month inflation expectations to 3.01% (above the central bank's 2% target range) and the unchanged policy rate expectation of 4.25% for 2026-2027 signal that the BCRP may face pressure to tighten monetary policy, affecting Peruvian sovereign bond yields and the sol exchange rate.
- 24-month inflation expectation held at 2.43% in July, unchanged from June.
- Policy rate expectation for 2028 is 4.00%.
- Regional survey: north and south zones had 16 of 18 indicators in the optimistic range; center and east zones had 17 of 18.
- The demand indicator relative to expected remained below 50 at 48.4.
In brief
Rates & Bonds 2 items
Two institutions published data on social benefits and monetary policy, but the releases are largely informational. Eurostat's net social benefits data covers categories like sickness and old age, while Bank Al-Maghrib's website provides comprehensive monetary policy information. No specific figures stand out.
FX & Emerging Markets 2 items
Two central banks published monetary updates, with Malawi's policy rate at 24.00% and a treasury bill auction raising MK 82,328.67 million, while Bolivia's monetary program monitoring report for July 2026 was also released. Belize and Guyana's exchange rates were included in the daily data.
Regulation & Structure 2 items
Two regulators issued enforcement actions: Hong Kong's SFC warned against Polar Tensor and unlicensed platforms BiFinance, while the SEC charged Andrew Spaventa and three entities with defrauding over 800 investors in a $74 million pre-IPO scam.
No direct market impact 5 items
Five releases cover diverse topics: Eurostat published three business cycle indicators (retail trade turnover, labour input, and service producer price index), while IMF PortWatch reported a magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Colombia causing 281 deaths, and the IRS proposed eliminating Form 1041-A for certain trusts.