2026-08-16 Sunday

Peru's 12-month inflation expectation rose to 3.01% in July from 2.83% in June, while the 24-month expectation held at 2.43%, according to the BCRP survey. Analysts' 2026 inflation expectation jumped to 3.85% from 3.20%, yet the policy rate is expected to stay at 4.25% through 2027. This divergence between rising price expectations and a steady rate suggests the central bank sees no need to tighten despite the survey's sharper-than-expected increase. Business expectations remain optimistic, with most indicators above 50, though the demand indicator relative to expected stayed below 50 at 48.4. The regional breakdown shows broad optimism: north and south zones had 16 of 18 indicators in the optimistic range, and center and east zones had 17 of 18. Growth expectations for 2026 are 3.1–3.3%, and the policy rate expectation for 2028 is 4.00%. The survey's message is that inflation expectations are drifting upward but remain within a range the central bank tolerates. For investors, the key is whether the 3.85% analyst expectation for 2026 forces a policy response later this year. Today's briefing carries no widely reported topics, as the day's noise was filtered out: 51 items were discarded as irrelevant, mostly in macro and environment (27) and risk and regulation (19).