The big picture
India's external accounts and the RBI's domestic liquidity operations are the same balance sheet, and August resolved them in opposite directions: the overall balance swung to $45.4bn from −$5.6bn a year earlier, with net NRI deposits of $83bn against $1bn, while the RBI's FX risk reserve FAQs now put a defined cost on carrying open rupee-dollar positions. Italy's debt stock of €3.2trn and non-resident holdings of €1.17trn describe the other side of the same trade — a sovereign whose investor base has shifted abroad, with €586.76bn maturing inside a year and an average residual maturity of 7.8 years. The Bank of Spain's upward revisions to growth and inflation, and the Bank of England's proposal to let CCPs take bank letters of credit as initial margin, both loosen a constraint that had been binding: the first on the ECB's easing path, the second on the cash and gilts non-financial clearing members must hold.
On the watchlist
- The RBI's underwriting auction of October 16, 2026: the cut-off commission determines the cost for underwriters and feeds into the government's borrowing cost in the subsequent sale.
- The Bank of England's consultation on CCP collateral: whether UK CCPs begin accepting uncollateralised commercial bank letters of credit as initial margin, with no UK-based CCP currently doing so.
- The Bank of Spain's 2027 projections: whether inflation holds in the mid threes and growth in the low twos, the figures that keep the ECB's easing path in question.
- The Central Bank of Iraq's traveller dollar allocation, effective 18 October 2026: whether the cap of a couple of thousand dollars per traveller every two months shifts demand onto the auction and widens the parallel-market premium.