The Fed's easing path is priced off core CPI at 2.6% while headline runs at 3.7%, and China's government bond balances growing 13.7% show the state is now the marginal buyer of duration.

Two of today's pieces describe the same mechanism from opposite ends: when private credit demand stalls, the state becomes the buyer of last resort. The RBI's operations point the same way from the other side: net absorption of ₹−129,265 crore is smaller than the record drain of recent briefings, yet the overnight segment cleared at 5.55%, so banks are paying up for reserves even as the central bank takes less out of the system. The US inflation print splits the same question: core at 2.6% keeps the front end anchored while headline at 3.7% leaves the Fed's easing path priced off the core series. The FSB's final AI report and the OCC's finding that all nine of the largest national banks restricted lawful sectors are the supervisory counterpart — both hand supervisors a common yardstick for decisions banks had been making on their own.