The big picture
The Bank of Japan's decision to keep its policy rate at 1% while cutting monthly JGB purchases to ¥2.5trn from ¥2.7trn marks a shift toward quantitative tightening even as it delays rate increases. Japan's services producer price index rose 3.7% year-on-year in August, with ocean freight transportation up 74.2%, a price pressure that the BOJ's own minutes flag as a reason the pace of hikes could be faster than the roughly six-month intervals the market prices. The RBI's net liquidity absorption of ₹−311,826 crore on September 25 and Nepal's month-long deposit auction both show Asian central banks draining cash to manage liquidity, but India's operation leaves banks dependent on the standing deposit facility rather than the interbank market, while Nepal's auction tightens lending capacity by counting toward the Liquidity Ratio but not the Cash Reserve Ratio.
On the watchlist
- October 5: Japan's Ministry of Finance auctions short-dated borrowing for the Local Allocation Tax and Transfer Tax Grants, with settlement on October 16 and lump-sum repayment the following April.
- October 26: The Federal Register comment deadline on Qualified Opportunity Fund reporting rules, extended from October 16, gives fund sponsors ten extra days to shape certification and decertification procedures.
- The Bank of Japan's next policy meeting: watch whether the uncollateralized overnight call rate target moves to 1.25%, the level dissenter Takata proposed, or stays at 1%.
- The RBI's next liquidity operation: watch whether net liquidity outstanding including today's operations moves further negative from ₹−460,705.24 crore or reverses as the standing deposit facility absorption at ₹218,132 crore changes.
- Mongolia's third-quarter 2026 CPI release will matter if inflation lands at the pace the Bank of Mongolia's survey projects rather than undershooting toward the central bank's slightly lower end-of-2026 forecast.