The big picture
The Bank of Japan's move to 1.25% is the day's only decision that reprices a sovereign curve, and it does so through two channels the pieces name separately: the complementary lending facility's basic loan rate at 1.5% lifts short-end funding costs for Japanese banks, while the deposit facility amendment effective September 24 mechanically drags the corridor floor up with the target. India's data pieces point the other way — reserves declining, with gold and foreign currency assets both falling, against software exports of $221.4bn that are just over half billed to the United States — so the rupee's two supports, the reserve buffer and the export earner, are both levered to the same dollar cycle.
On the watchlist
- The Reserve Bank of India auctions state government securities on 22 September 2026, with Goa and Punjab pricing new paper through yield-based auctions.
- The Bank of Japan's amended complementary deposit facility rate takes effect on 24 September 2026, setting the corridor floor at 1.25%.
- The OSC's successor rule would extend the CSA's repo-facility relief to 24 July 2028, after the Ontario exemption lapses on 24 January 2027.
- The Fed finalises its risk-based capital reforms and G-SIB surcharge before the end of 2026, with the stress capital buffer effective date moving to January 1.
- Ghana's SEC draft guidelines cap discretionary-fund exposure to unlisted securities at roughly a fifth per single issuance, with the comment window still open.
What moved
Decisions & policy
Why it matters Japanese banks funding at the new 1.25% call rate face an immediate repricing of short-term liabilities, and the Ministry of Finance must plan issuance against a higher short-end curve.
The Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 1.25% by a large majority, judging that accommodation should be adjusted as CPI excluding fresh food runs just short of the 2% target. The complementary lending facility's basic loan rate now sits at 1.5%, lifting short-end funding costs for Japanese banks and transmitting into JGB yields and the Ministry of Finance's debt-servicing bill, with the Bank pledging further hikes as conditions warrant.
- Complementary deposit facility rate 1.25%
- CPI (all items less fresh food) year-on-year rate of increas 1.5%
- CPI (all items less fresh food), y/y 2%
Why it matters Japanese government bond yields at the short end reprice immediately, and with the BOJ explicitly flagging upside risk to its 2% target, the next hike is already priced — public finance investors holding JGBs face a steeper curve and higher refinancing costs for the sovereign.
The Bank of Japan raised its uncollateralized overnight call rate to 1.25% from around the level it set in June, continuing the hiking cycle it began with that move. With underlying CPI approaching the 2% target and medium- to long-term inflation expectations still rising, the BOJ said it will keep raising the policy rate in response to economic activity and prices.
- Uncollateralized overnight call rate 1.25%
- Price stability target 2%
Why it matters The deposit facility rate anchors the floor of Japan's money market corridor; its alignment with the new call rate means the BOJ's tightening transmits mechanically to every short-term yen instrument, forcing money market funds and banks to reprice funding costs from the effective date.
The Policy Board amended the Principal Terms and Conditions of the Complementary Deposit Facility, setting the interest rate applied to the facility in line with the change in the money market operations guideline, effective September 24, 2026. The amendment mechanically aligns the deposit facility with the new uncollateralized overnight call rate, ensuring the floor of the BOJ's rate corridor moves in step with the policy target.
Data
Why it matters A US slowdown or a shift in outsourcing policy would hit more than half of India's software receipts, weakening the services surplus that offsets the goods deficit and pressures the rupee.
India's software services exports grew at a high-single-digit pace year-on-year in 2025-26 to $221.4bn, with the United States accounting for 54.1% of the total, according to the Reserve Bank of India's annual survey. The concentration in a single market leaves the export earnings that underpin India's current account — and the rupee — exposed to US demand and dollar invoicing, which already covers 72.6% of receipts.
- Software services exports incl. commercial presence $239.3bn
- IT services exports $147bn
- BPO services exports $56bn
- Local software business by foreign affiliates $17.9bn
Why it matters A falling reserve buffer limits the RBI's capacity to smooth rupee volatility, and with M3 expanding at 16.7%, the central bank faces a trade-off between supporting the currency and managing domestic liquidity.
India's foreign exchange reserves fell to $780.78bn as of September 11, 2026, down over the week but still up $77.82bn over the year, with gold reserves and foreign currency assets both declining. The drawdown reduces the buffer available to the RBI for defending the rupee, while money stock growth of 16.7% and bank credit growth of 10.3% show domestic liquidity remains ample.
- Aggregate deposits, y/y 9.8%
- Net bank credit to government, y/y 8.4%
Why it matters The consolidated accounts give the Public Accounts Committee and investors the fullest picture of UK public sector liabilities, informing scrutiny of fiscal sustainability that feeds into gilt demand.
The UK Treasury released the Whole of Government Accounts for the year ended 31 March 2025, the sixteenth annual edition of the consolidated IFRS-based accounts of the UK public sector, with a handbook added in September 2026. The WGA is the primary accountability document scrutinised by Parliament's Public Accounts Committee and complements the ONS National Accounts and OBR fiscal forecasts, shaping the fiscal backdrop against which gilt issuance is assessed.
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Issuance & auctions
Why it matters Cambios price the cash dollar that Jamaican importers and households actually buy, so the settlement level sets the reference for the parallel retail rate and feeds directly into imported goods prices.
The Bank of Jamaica allocated $40m to Authorized Dealers and select Cambios through a B-FXITT Standard Auction on 18 September 2026, with all allocations settled at 156.93 JMD/USD. Six banks and five cambios took the full amount, so the intervention reached the retail-facing end of the FX market rather than only the dealer tier.
Why it matters Bidders cleared at the Bank of Jamaica's cut-off rate while the marginal bid that won full allocation needed a fraction more, so the cut-off, not the offer size, is what tells dealers where the Bank of Jamaica will defend the currency.
The Bank of Jamaica sold $40m through its B-FXITT Standard Intervention Tool on 18 September 2026 against $102m of eligible bids, allocating 18 bids at a settlement price of 156.93 JMD/USD. Demand covered the offer more than twice over, and the lowest price for full allocation sat just above the settlement price.
- Total eligible bids received 48
- Total value of allocated bids $40m
- Lowest bid price for full allocation 156.94 JMD/USD
Why it matters State borrowing is priced off the same curve as central government paper, so the cut-offs on the long re-issues such as the 2051 and 2053 lines set the spread that funds and insurers demand for sub-sovereign duration.
The Reserve Bank of India will auction ₹16,750 crore of state government securities on 22 September 2026, with seven states and union territories offering stock and most lines re-issued at auction. Goa and Punjab bring new paper via yield-based auctions, and up to a tenth of each notified amount is reserved for non-competitive bidders.
- Auction amount, Jammu and Kashmir ₹600 crore
- Auction amount, Goa ₹150 crore
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Regulation & supervision
Why it matters Funds that have been warehousing unlisted notes and commercial paper in discretionary portfolios must rebalance or register the exposure, which pushes issuance toward the listed market and raises the cost of short-term corporate funding in Ghana.
Ghana's SEC issued draft guidelines for investment in unlisted securities, capping aggregate exposure through discretionary funds and setting minimum capital for commercial paper issuers at GHS 3m. Licensed managers holding unlisted paper now face a hard ceiling on discretionary mandates, with breaches drawing administrative penalties that run from a nominal minimum to the top of the penalty-unit scale.
- Commercial paper minimum maturity 15 days
- Commercial paper maximum maturity 270 days
- Minimum stated capital, unlisted notes and bonds GHS 15m
- Single issuance exposure limit 20%
Why it matters Russian banks and banking groups building digital-currency books face a hard capital ceiling, and the 1,250% risk weight on СВР цв and КЛП1 forces them to hold capital against positions that previously sat outside Н1.i.
The Bank of Russia's draft regulation sets the maximum permitted value of the new ratios Н31 and Н32 at 1% of a credit institution's or banking group's own funds, with the risk amount entering capital adequacy at a 1,250% risk weight. Breaching the cap on 6 days or more operational days within any rolling window of consecutive operational days exposes a bank to measures under Article 74 of the Central Bank Law, so crypto intermediation is priced by capital rather than by the market.
- Beta coefficient for maturity mismatch 5%
- Risk weight for КЛП2 in capital adequacy ratios 50%
- Risk factor coefficient for ПФИ on ЦВ/ИЦИ under Regulation N 36%
- β coefficient for 13-18 month maturity mismatch 36%
Why it matters Codifying the exemption removes the expiry risk that has kept fund managers from treating the CTRF as standing liquidity, letting them fund Government of Canada and provincial collateral for terms up to 30 days without breaching repurchase rules.
The CSA proposed amendments codifying its Coordinated Blanket Order, giving reporting issuer investment funds harmonized exemptions from repurchase transactions requirements so they can use the Bank of Canada's Contingent Term Repo Facility. The relief, which has no expiry in most CSA jurisdictions but lapses in Ontario on January 24, 2027, would be extended to July 24, 2028 under the OSC's successor rule.
- Comment period 60 days
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Speeches & research
Why it matters Lower and less volatile stress capital buffers feed straight into how much capital the largest US banks must hold against trading and lending books, freeing balance-sheet capacity that shows up in bank funding costs and Treasury demand.
The Fed will finalise risk-based capital reforms for large and small banks and the G-SIB surcharge before the end of 2026, and will consider final stress-testing revisions in the coming weeks. Averaging a bank's two most recent annual tests halves stress capital buffer volatility without materially changing aggregate required capital, and the SCB effective date moves from October 1 to January 1, giving banks a quarter more to plan distributions.
Why it matters If markets are pricing hikes off energy alone while the ECB insists on a broader data set, the front end can reprice sharply on any energy reversal — and the Vice-President's read that sovereign yields reflect deficits and issuance rather than instability keeps duration risk in the hands of fiscal authorities.
Vujčić said energy prices have moved well above the ECB's latest projection baseline and now drive market pricing of several rate hikes over the next 12 months, while the ECB gives no forward guidance and decides meeting by meeting. He attributed the rise in long-term sovereign yields to higher inflation expectations, large fiscal deficits, sovereign issuance and record corporate bond supply, and said it does not threaten financial stability.
- Food inflation peak (projection) 3.4%
- Renewables share of final energy consumption 26%
- Renewables share of electricity consumption 50%