The big picture
S&P's upgrade of Kazakhstan to BBB rests on resilience and reserves, with inflation falling to 10.2% and growth at 5.1%. The upgrade lowers sovereign borrowing costs, a direct benefit for holders of Kazakh debt. Meanwhile, two central bank papers challenge conventional wisdom: the Fed's IFDP shows limited foresight breaks Barro's tax smoothing, and the BoE quantifies that capital gains tax cuts raise stock volatility by 35%. These research threads point to repricing risks in both fiscal and equity markets.
On the watchlist
- 2026-09-01: S&P's next scheduled review of Kazakhstan's outlook, to see if the stable outlook is maintained.
- 2026-08-30: Release of the Fed's minutes from the July FOMC meeting, for any discussion of productivity shocks and inflation.
- 2026-09-15: Bank of England's next policy decision, to see if the productivity shock analysis influences their inflation forecast.
- 2026-09-10: Peru's central bank announces its September rate decision, with credit growth at 4% y/y.
- 2026-08-28: US 10-year Treasury yield, watch for a break above the highest level reached this quarter.
Top stories
2Productivity shocks: inflation hinges on timingPDFRates & Bonds
— BoE
3Tax Smoothing Fails Under Limited Foresight★ Barely reportedRates & Bonds
— Fed
4Capital gains tax cuts raise stock volatilityPDFEquities & Sectors
— BoE
5Peru's twin surpluses bolster sovereign creditPDFFollow-upRates & Bonds
In brief
Rates & Bonds 3 items
More details... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
Commodities & Energy 1 item
Monthly Statistical Bulletin - June 2026 — Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO)
FX & Emerging Markets 2 items
Regulation & Structure 6 items
Show all 6 items
SMI confirms expansion of list of markets admitted in partnerships with foreign intermediaries — Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (Brazil)
Survey launched by AMLA on Central Contact Points 21 August 2026 - Communiqué — Commission de surveillance du secteur financier (Luxembourg)
Consultation Paper - Proposed Insurance (Internationally Active Insurance Group Supervision) Rules 2026 — Bermuda Monetary Authority
Commission and EFPA Luxembourg signed a Framework Partnership Agreement — Capital Market Authority (Montenegro)
No direct market impact 2 items
August 21, Governor Valdez Albizu receives representatives of J.P. Morgan — Central Bank of the Dominican Republic
Release Calendar — Ghana Statistical Services