The big picture
The ECB's warning on Europe's eroding growth model and the euro area's inflation uptick to 2.9% both pressure the central bank's policy path, with Lagarde citing structural challenges and the inflation data complicating the ECB's next move. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow nowcast of 4.0% Q3 growth, if sustained, argues for a hawkish Fed, contrasting with the ECB's dilemma. The UK's July inflation data, released on 19 August, feeds directly into the BoE's decision, adding to the global central bank divergence.
On the watchlist
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow next update on 2026-08-26, against current 4.0% Q3 nowcast.
- UK next inflation release on 2026-09-16, following July's data.
- EIA drilling productivity report on 2026-09-14, to see if super-lateral share continues to rise.
- IMF Article IV review for Haiti, expected later this year, to validate reserve and inflation figures.
- ECB policy decision following euro-area inflation at 2.9% in July, with June's hike to 2.25%.
Top stories
Why it matters Europe's eroding growth model, with EU electricity prices over twice US levels, could force the ECB to keep policy tighter for longer, pressuring euro-area bond yields and bank margins.
ECB President Christine Lagarde argued at the World Economic Forum that Europe's post-war growth model is eroding due to weakening pillars: global trade expansion, mid-tech manufacturing advantage, and a stable global order. She cited over 2,500 trade restrictions globally last year, China competing in nearly 40% of sectors where Europe has comparative advantage, and EU electricity prices for energy-intensive industries more than twice US levels and 50% above China's. Despite this, the euro area grew 1.5% last year, driven by domestic demand, suggesting resilience but also structural challenges that could weigh on long-term growth and influence ECB policy.
Why it matters Bank loan funds' illiquidity ratio nearing pandemic levels, with net assets down 21% to $71 billion, signals vulnerability to outflows in stress, potentially forcing funds to sell into falling markets.
The Fed's FEDS Note, using SEC Form N-PORT data, shows that from 2019 Q4 to 2025 Q4, bank loan (BL) mutual funds' net assets fell 21% to $71 billion, while high-yield (HY) funds rose 13% to $263 billion. The median BL fund's illiquidity ratio has been approaching pandemic-era levels since 2025, even as its liquidity ratio stabilized around 4.5% since 2024. During the April 2025 tariff shock, BL funds with above-median liquidity saw larger outflows (-4.2% vs -2.7% for below-median), reversing the March 2020 pattern where below-median funds suffered more (-14.2% vs -6.7%). This suggests the relationship between liquidity and redemptions is conditional on stress type, and for bond investors, it implies that BL funds' liquidity transformation risk has increased, potentially amplifying outflows in future liquidity-driven stress events.
- BL MFs' net assets declined by $19 billion (21%) to $71 billion from 2019 Q4 to 2025 Q4.
- HY MFs' net assets rose 13% to $263 billion from 2019 Q4 to 2025 Q4.
- Median BL MF liquidity ratio stabilized at about 4.5% since 2024.
- Median BL MF illiquidity ratio since 2025 approaching pandemic-era levels.
- Median HY MF liquidity ratio stable at about 4% since 2020.
- April 2025: BL MFs with above-median liquidity had outflows -4.2% vs -2.7% for below-median.
- April 2025: HY MFs with above-median liquidity had outflows -2.1% vs -1.1% for below-median.
- March 2020: BL MFs with below-median liquidity had outflows -14.2% vs -6.7% for above-median.
Why it matters A 4.0% Q3 GDP nowcast, with inflation near double target, would likely push the Fed to hike again, repricing US rate expectations and pressuring duration-sensitive assets.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model nowcasts U.S. real GDP growth at 4.0% (SAAR) for 2026:Q3 as of August 18, 2026, based on data through that date. The model, which mimics the BEA's methodology and aggregates forecasts of 13 GDP subcomponents, is updated six or seven times a month on weekdays. A nowcast this strong, if it persists, would argue for a hawkish Fed stance, especially with inflation running near double the target, as Fed Governor Lisa Cook recently noted. The model's average absolute error is 0.77 percentage points, so the true figure could be anywhere from 3.2% to 4.8%. The next update is scheduled for August 26, 2026, and that will show whether the strength holds as more data come in. The risk is that the model's error can be substantial just before the advance estimate, so the August 26 update is the key checkpoint.
- Average absolute error of final GDPNow forecasts: 0.77 percentage points (2011:Q3–2025:Q2).
- Root-mean-squared error: 1.17 percentage points (2011:Q3–2025:Q2).
- Back-testing 2000:Q1–2013:Q4 yields RMSE of 1.15 percentage points for out-of-sample forecasts before the advance estimate.
- Model updated six or seven times a month on weekdays.
- Nowcasts begin about 90 days before the advance GDP estimate.
Why it matters Singapore's tax exemption for fund management services, effective YA 2027, lowers costs and could attract more assets, reinforcing its hub status and potentially diverting flows from other Asian centers.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore announced measures to strengthen its asset management hub status, including a tax exemption for fund management services effective from Year of Assessment 2027, a new hedge fund investment programme, and an Investment Management Track under the ONE Pass framework. The industry accounts for about 15% of the financial sector's output and 13% of its employment, growing 7.5% annually to nearly S$7 trillion. The tax exemption lowers the cost of fund management services, potentially attracting more assets and reinforcing Singapore's competitive edge in regional asset management.
Why it matters UK July inflation data, feeding the BoE's decision, could determine whether the BoE holds or cuts, directly impacting UK gilt yields and sterling.
The UK ONS released July 2026 inflation data on 19 August, covering CPI, CPIH, RPI, and producer prices, with the next release scheduled for 16 September. These accredited official statistics feed directly into the Bank of England's policy decisions, which are the key market question as the BoE's next move remains uncertain amid divergent central bank holds. The data includes contributions by import intensity and private rent and house prices, providing a comprehensive view of UK price pressures.
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Euro area annual inflation rose to 2.9% in July 2026, up from 2.8% in June, driven mainly by services (+1.55 pp) and energy (+0.94 pp). This follows the ECB's June hike to 2.25%, its first since September 2023, in response to May's 3.2% peak. The uptick, though modest, complicates the ECB's path as it diverges from the Dutch acceleration to 3.2% in July, pressuring the single policy stance and potentially lifting euro area bond yields.
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At the August 19 installation of the Bank of the Republic of Haiti's new board, Prime Minister Alix Didier Fils-Aimé and Governor Ronald Gabriel cited net reserves of $1.8 billion and gross reserves covering eight months of imports, against the IMF's three-month minimum, plus disinflation since October 2025. The figures signal fiscal credibility that underpins the gourde and Haiti's access to IMF programs, with the stated goal of avoiding FATF blacklisting. The numbers come from the ceremony speeches; the next test is whether the IMF's Article IV review, expected later this year, validates the reserve and inflation figures.
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EIA data show Permian operators drilling longer laterals, including super-laterals over 15,000 feet, lifted hydrocarbon production from 2.9 million BOE/d in 2015 to 11.2 million BOE/d in 2025, a 284% increase, with average lateral length up 77% to 10,867 feet. Longer wells lower per-barrel costs, supporting U.S. supply growth that caps global oil prices and feeds into inflation expectations. The shift is documented in EIA's drilling productivity report; the next monthly update, due September 14, will show whether super-lateral share continues to rise.
Deep dives
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Remote work has become a permanent feature of labor markets, with the share of U.S. job postings offering remote work rising from about 3.5% in 2019 to 9-10% by mid-2026, a more than three-fold increase. The shift is even more pronounced in other English-speaking countries: the U.K. saw a rise from about 2% to nearly 17% by June 2026, while Australia and Canada reached 9-10% and New Zealand about 5.8% in 2025. This is not a temporary pandemic artifact but a durable change in job design, as evidenced by the persistence of early adopters: the 2019 cohort of remote-work-friendly employers still advertised remote work in 14.4% of postings in 2025, versus 2.4% for the 2024 cohort.
The authors built a large language model (RWO) fine-tuned on 30,000 human classifications and applied it to nearly 600 million job postings from Lightcast across five countries (January 2014 to June 2026). The model achieves a 98% classification accuracy, far outperforming dictionary methods (error rate 0.16 vs. 0.02). The non-uniformity is striking: across occupations classified as 'not teleworkable' by Dingel and Neiman, remote-work shares in 2025 ranged from 0% to 38%, with a mean of 4%. The gap between the densest and least dense U.S. metros widened from 0.3 percentage points in 2019 to 3.2 percentage points by June 2026, indicating a geographic concentration of remote work in denser areas.
A key finding is that 91% of cross-firm variation in remote-work shares is within two-digit industries, not between them. Among 31,636 U.S. employers with at least 100 postings in 2025, 30% advertised no remote work at all, while 6% advertised it in more than half of their postings. This suggests remote work is a firm-level choice about job design, not a technological constraint. The persistence of remote work at high levels affects commuting patterns, urban commercial real estate demand, and local tax revenues, which in turn influences municipal bond creditworthiness. Central banks monitoring wage dynamics and productivity must account for this structural shift, as remote work alters the matching of workers to jobs and potentially the natural rate of unemployment.
- The RWO model's error rate was 0.02, six times lower than the dictionary method's 0.16.
- The dictionary method showed a surge in remote work postings at the onset of COVID-19 that RWO did not.
- Weighted correlations of RWO with survey measures: 0.697 with ACS MSA-level work-from-home shares, 0.916 with ACS occupation-level shares, 0.855 with CPS state-level shares, and 0.934 with CPS occupation-level shares in 2024.
- The RWO model was pre-trained on 900,000 sequences and fine-tuned on 30,000 human classifications of 10,000 text sequences.
- Country-level shares were re-weighted to the U.S. 2024 occupational distribution for cross-country comparisons.
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The Swiss National Bank updates its repo-eligible securities list daily, and the latest log shows a steady churn of additions and redemptions, dominated by high-quality liquid assets (HQLA) in the L1 and L2a baskets. New issuances from sovereigns and supranationals enter the eligible pool, while maturing instruments—often large money market book claims—are redeemed, shrinking the collateral available to banks. The list is the operational backbone for SNB repo operations, and its composition directly affects liquidity conditions for Swiss banks and the transmission of monetary policy.
On 2026-08-20, a EUR 3 billion zero-coupon German bond (ISIN DE000BU0E444, maturing 2027-08-18) and a CHF 390.2 million Swiss Confederation money market book claim (ISIN CH1307181490, maturing 2026-11-19) were added to L1. A EUR 1 billion International Finance Corp bond (ISIN XS3440163569, 3.125% coupon, maturing 2033-08-15) also joined L1. Earlier, on 2026-08-19, a GBP 2,999,997,000 UK bond (ISIN GB00BSGRGT12, maturing 2027-02-15) was added, and on 2026-08-18 a CHF 300 million Pfandbriefbank schweiz. Hypothekarinstitute AG bond (ISIN CH1580409279, 1.125% coupon, maturing 2037-12-22) entered L2a. Redemptions included a EUR 32.5 billion German bond (ISIN DE0001102408) on 2026-08-15 and a CHF 10.735 billion SNB money market book claim (ISIN CH1478192409) on 2026-07-06, both removed from L1.
The SNB's classification follows the revised Liquidity Ordinance, but the bank stresses it is based on its own interpretation and does not consider institution-specific circumstances; it accepts no liability for the classification. FINMA may impose further requirements. For market participants, the practical effect is that the eligible collateral pool is constantly reshaped—large redemptions like the CHF 10.7 billion claim reduce the stock of high-quality assets banks can pledge, while new additions, such as the EUR 3 billion German bond, replenish it. The daily log is a direct window into the SNB's liquidity operations, and the scale of individual entries—billions in a single line—shows how these adjustments can move the supply of collateral in Swiss franc money markets.
- On 2026-08-20, a new CHF 390.2 million Swiss Confederation money market book claim (ISIN CH1307181490) was added to L1 and L1 CHF baskets, maturing 2026-11-19.
- On 2026-08-13, a new CHF 397.4 million Swiss Confederation money market book claim (ISIN CH1307181482) was added to L1 and L1 CHF, maturing 2026-11-12.
- On 2026-08-10, a new GBP 3 billion UK bond (ISIN GB00BSGRDR82) was added to L1, maturing 2027-02-08.
- On 2026-08-07, a new GBP 5,312,499,000 UK bond (ISIN GB00BWGDRG14) with a 4.625% coupon was added to L1, maturing 2032-03-07.
- On 2026-07-22, a GBP 44,673,738,000 UK bond (ISIN GB00BYZW3G56) matured and was redeemed from L1.
- On 2026-08-17, a new CHF 1 SNB money market book claim (ISIN CH1478193001) was added to L1 and L1 CHF, maturing 2027-07-19.
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The Bank of Russia's August 19, 2026 bulletin shows retail deposit costs remain elevated, with the average maximum rate across the ten largest retail banks at 12.89% for the first ten days of August. This signals persistent high funding costs for Russian banks, which supports their demand for OFZ bonds and keeps the central bank's key rate trajectory tight. The MIACR overnight rate averaged 13.68% for August 7-13, down 0.06 percentage points from the prior period, indicating a slight easing in interbank liquidity conditions.
The MIACR-IG and MIACR-B overnight rates also declined, to 13.69% and 13.68% respectively, reflecting broad-based easing across credit tiers. The official USD/RUB rate rose from 82.6060 on August 11 to 84.5449 on August 15, while the EUR/RUB rate climbed from 95.2860 to 97.5141, suggesting renewed ruble depreciation pressure. Gold fixing prices in rubles also increased, from 11,514.54 to 11,886.60 RUB/gram over the same period.
Regulatory changes include Directive No. 7341-U amending insurer solvency rules, effective August 6, 2026, with some provisions deferred to 2027 and 2029. Three credit institutions were liquidated in August 2026, including Buzulukbank and two non-bank credit organizations. The deposit rate indicator is calculated as the arithmetic average of maximum rates, excluding capitalization and conditional products, and is indicative rather than binding. MIACR rates are based on Moscow banks only, which may not fully represent the national interbank market.
- Average maximum deposit rates by maturity: up to 90 days – 12.33%; 91-180 days – 12.65%; 181 days to 1 year – 12.48%; over 1 year – 11.47%.
- MIACR-IG overnight rate averaged 13.69% for August 7-13, down 0.04 percentage points.
- MIACR-B overnight rate averaged 13.68% for August 7-13, down 0.08 percentage points.
- Official EUR/RUB rate: 95.2860 on August 11, 2026; 97.5141 on August 15, 2026.
- Official gold fixing price: 11,514.54 RUB/gram on August 11, 2026; 11,886.60 RUB/gram on August 15, 2026.
In brief
Rates & Bonds 22 items
Across 22 releases, central banks and statistical offices reported on monetary policy, inflation, and financial market operations. The RBI held its repo rate at 5.25% and auctioned treasury bills, while the Bundesbank tapped federal notes and conducted a USD liquidity operation. Notable data: German manufacturing orders rose 0.8% m/m (Destatis), Australia's wage price index eased to 3.2% y/y, and South Korea's household credit increased by 25.9 trillion won. The euro area current account surplus narrowed to €276 billion (Bundesbank), and the Bank of Jamaica's CD auction saw strong demand.
Show all 22 items
Equities & Sectors 1 item
The sole item is an administrative action by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission, which obtained an administration order for Ceiba Investments Limited and appointed joint administrators.
Commodities & Energy 2 items
Two items cover energy and shipping. Diamondback Energy's CEO expressed optimism about the Permian Basin, citing a 300-fold production increase since 2012 and challenges like grid delays. IMF PortWatch data show normal vessel transits at key chokepoints, with Suez Canal transits ranging from 39 to 41 vessels daily.
FX & Emerging Markets 5 items
Five items span FX and emerging markets. The PBoC and RBA renewed their swap agreement, expanding it to 220 billion yuan. Myanmar's central bank reported a weighted average rate of 3273.45 MMK/USD. Timor-Leste's trade deficit widened to $92.39 million. Russia's central bank published credit institution data, and South Africa's FX committee met.
Regulation & Structure 10 items
Ten regulatory items cover digital assets, recovery planning, and sanctions. The OCC noted a surge in digital asset bank charter applications (23 of 40). The CFTC seeks comment on compute derivatives. Jamaica's FSC consults on recovery plans. The UN amended 21 sanctions entries. The FCA fined a former CEO £56,400. Other items include BaFin's finfluencer guidance and CBR instructions.
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Other market topics 2 items
Two items: Italy's current account surplus rose to EUR 30.4 billion (Banca d'Italia), and the SNB conducted a 7-day auction at 3.88%.
No direct market impact 15 items
Fifteen items have no direct market impact, covering national statistics, trade, and administrative updates. Notable: Uzbekistan hosts 20,973 foreign-invested enterprises (China leading), Fiji's administrative services value added rose 53%, Germany recognized 86,600 foreign qualifications, and the US-Mexico resolved a labor matter. Others include HMRC bulletins, UK trade remedies, and RBA whistleblower services.