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Marktbriefing · 2026-10-07 Mittwoch · Vorschau

The SARB lifts its policy rate to 7.25% as Türkiye's energy CPI runs at 46.11%, two central banks now fighting a price shock that has moved past the headline.

The big picture

The Turkish headline improvement is a base-effect story, not a disinflation one — food prices fell −0.2% on the month, and the CBRT's next decision turns on whether the seasonally adjusted core measures keep improving. Lane and Rehn give the two inflation pieces a common external cause: both name AI-driven investment and the associated US long-term debt issuance as a driver of long-term yields, which Lane says slows the euro-area economy and reduces inflation on its own. India's liquidity operations sit on the other side of that same capital competition: the RBI will mount a record overnight drain on 7 October while anchoring the sovereign's short-term funding to the repo rate through a Ways and Means Advances limit of ₹50,000 crore.

On the watchlist

  • The CBRT's next policy rate decision, with the September core readings — the C index at 28.7% and the B index at 29% — setting whether the easing bias survives.
  • The SARB's next MPC meeting, where the repo path is guided to stay above target until the second quarter of 2027 with GDP growth forecast at 1.2%.
  • The RBI's 7 October overnight variable rate reverse repo auction carries a notified amount that is the largest in the series, well above the previous operation's.
  • The ECB's next full-allotment tender, where take-up rather than the rate signals how much liquidity euro-area banks still want at the Governing Council's price.
  • The SEC custody proposal's comment window, closing 62 days after publication, on routing client crypto assets through qualified custodians.

What moved

3 of 6 releases rated high today; the others lead their sections.

Decisions & policy

1 piece · 1 more release

SARB Tightens as Inflation Shock Broadens Into Core

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— SARB

Data

2 pieces · 20 more releases

Alle 20 Einträge anzeigen

Issuance & auctions

3 pieces · 20 more releases

Alle 20 Einträge anzeigen
UK takes next step towards first digitally native government bond — HM Treasury (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
MSB Issuance Notice(03430-2709-0101) — Bank of Korea (BOK) 2026-10-06
More details... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic

Regulation & supervision

3 pieces · 27 more releases

Alle 27 Einträge anzeigen
Sanctions Notice - Syria — Guernsey Financial Services Commission 2026-10-06
Initiation of proceedings to impose a penalty on Mutual Insurance Company "TUW" — Polish Financial Supervision Authority 2026-10-06
More details... — National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic
https://sfc.it.com — Securities and Futures Commission (Hong Kong)
Investment Adviser Performance-Based Compensation Modernization — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-10-06
Adoption of Updated EDGAR Filer Manual — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-10-06
Transparency in Coverage — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-10-06
Circular 14/2026 (BA) — BaFin 2026-10-06

Speeches & research

2 pieces · 37 more releases

Alle 37 Einträge anzeigen
How Fast Do Tariffs Pass Through into Consumer Prices? — Liberty Street Economics (NY Fed) 2026-10-06
Eddie Yue on Recent trend in the Hong Kong dollar — Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Liquidez Prime Fund - FIMA - Report and Accounts | 1st Half of 2026 — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-10-05
Quantum Computing: Federal Actions Needed to Prepare for Emerging Cyber Threat — U.S. Government Accountability Office 2026-10-06
Financial Cryptography in Rome 2026 (FCiR26) — Banca d'Italia 2026-09-30

The week ahead

Dates named in today’s releases that fall within the next seven days · no model involved.

In brief

89 releases

Alle 89 Einträge anzeigen
Turnover index in transport and storage activities, Q2 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Turnover indices of other services, Q2 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Tourism, August 2026 — Agency for Statistics (Bosnia-Herzegovina)
Reference tables: component approach to labour productivity, UK: 1997 to 2024 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
Consumption Expenditure of Population of Indonesia March 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-10-05
Construction Cost Index Province and Regency/Municipality 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-10-01
Welfare Statistics 2026 — Statistics Indonesia (BPS) 2026-10-05
BFA INVEST - Special Open-Ended Securities Investment Fund, Public Subscription — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-10-06
A Letter to Students of Economics - 2026 — Central Bank of Ireland 2026-10-06
Fireside Chat: Tiff Macklem, Governor — Bank of Canada 2026-10-14
The John Kuszczak Memorial Lecture — Bank of Canada 2026-10-29
Panel: Tiff Macklem, Governor — Bank of Canada 2026-10-16
The inspection process — Danish Financial Supervisory Authority
Currency and Exchanges Manuals — SARB 2026-10-05
Transparency data: Horizon redress schemes: progress report for 2026 — Department for Business and Trade (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
09.10.2026 Hunting 2025/2026 — Statistics Austria
Authorising an agent to deal with your tax affairs — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
Privacy Act Exemptions — U.S. Federal Register (Financial Regulation) 2026-10-06
LA LUXEMBOURGEOISE S.A. — BaFin 2026-10-06
Panel: Carolyn Rogers, Senior Deputy Governor — Bank of Canada 2026-10-15
6 October — Bureau of National Statistics (Kazakhstan)
Check the CVM's opening hours on the 12/10 holiday — Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (Brazil)
CVM participates in IOSCO event in Milan, Italy — Comissão de Valores Mobiliários (Brazil)
António Sebastião André — Comissão do Mercado de Capitais (Angola) 2026-10-06
Consob and Roma Tre University: personal finance in the digital era course launched — Commissione Nazionale per le Società e la Borsa (Italy)
Tell HMRC the value of items in your PAYE Settlement Agreement — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
Guidance: Approved payers in the middleman scheme — HM Revenue & Customs (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
Adult smoking habits in the UK: 2025 — Office for National Statistics (United Kingdom) 2026-10-06
QUICKBUILD LTD — The Gazette (UK) 2026-10-06